Logistics Insights
The Logistics Data page provides a comprehensive overview of key supply chain trends and future economic outlooks by analyzing the monthly LMI Score alongside firms' forward-looking predictions. It also examines the historical trajectory of LMI scores over the past three years and offers deeper insights into the differences between large and small firms, as well as upstream and downstream businesses.
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Analysis: Current Scores vs. Future Predictions
The August Logistics Manager’s Index reads in at 59.3, up very slightly (+0.1) from July’s reading of 59.2. The minimal overall movement is the product of counteracting forces at the sub-component level. The upward pressure comes from inventory and warehousing metrics.The downward pressure comes from our transportation metrics. We saw notable drops in both Transportation Prices (-6.9 to 56.1) and Transportation Utilization (-4.8 to 54.7). At the same time, available Transportation Capacity is up (+4.7) to 57.3. While these are not necessarily seismic shifts on their own, the fact that Transportation Capacity is now expanding faster than Transportation Prices is significant as it represents a mild negative freight inversion. Respondents were asked to predict movement in the overall LMI and individual metrics 12 months from now. Respondent predictions for the overall index are 63.9, up (+1.3) from July’s future prediction of 62.6. This would represent a faster rate of growth than the all-time average of 61.5. A primary reason for this slowed down prediction are softer (--1.7) predictions regarding Inventory Level expansion, which came in at 55.0.
Analysis: LMI Historical Trends
The current LMI of 59.3 is slightly below the recent three-month average of 59.8 and the all-time average of 61.5. Historically, the index has ranged from a low of 45.4 to a high of 76.2, with a standard deviation of 7.72, indicating moderate variability over time.
Analysis: Small vs. Large Firms, Upstream vs. Downstream Trends
We observe some differences when comparing feedback from Upstream and Downstream respondents in August. The most notable move, however, may be a lack of differences. For the past three readings Downstream Inventory Levels had contracted. That shifted in August, as Downstream retailers began stocking up at a rate of 57.1, only 0.9-points lower than Upstream’s expansion of 58.1. We also compare smaller firms (those with 0-999 employees, represented by maroon lines) to larger firms (those with 1,000 employees or more, represented by gold lines) in August. Similar to what we have seen in 3 of the last 4 months, smaller respondents are reporting significantly more activity this month than their larger counterparts. However unlike those reports, there was no significant difference in Inventory Levels, as large firms have now moved into expansionary territory (55.6) after contracting in July (49.0). The movements of inventories to larger firms may explain the statistically higher rate of expansion for Warehousing Utilization for large respondents (67.1) compared to their smaller counterparts (57.7). Despite this shift, smaller firms show significantly higher Inventory Costs (83.7) than larger firms (72.2), although both as still up significantly. Taken together, smaller firms report marginally a higher overall index (62.7 to 58.2), continuing the trend we have seen through much of 2025 with smaller firms reporting more supply chain activity across the board