Logistics Insights
Inside the Logistics Data Charts
The Logistics Data page offers a dynamic, data-rich view of the U.S. supply chain, helping users track trends and anticipate economic shifts. At its core is the monthly Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) Score, which reflects real-time conditions across inventory, warehousing, and transportation. But the page goes far beyond a single number.
Each month, the dashboard presents a series of interactive charts that visualize:
-
Current LMI scores, alongside data from previous months to highlight short-term trends
-
Forward-looking predictions from logistics professionals about expected conditions in the next 12 months
-
Historical LMI trajectories spanning the past two to three years, revealing long-term patterns and cycles
-
Comparative scores between upstream (e.g., manufacturers, suppliers) and downstream (e.g., retailers, distributors) firms
-
Firm size breakdowns, showing how large and small businesses experience logistics pressures differently
This layered analysis provides a nuanced understanding of how different segments of the supply chain respond to economic forces.
The following excerpts are copyrighted and owned by the Logistics Manager’s Index© and are reproduced here with permission.
Analysis: Current Scores vs. Future Predictions
The LMI read in at 57.4, down (-1.9) from August’s reading of 59.3. This is the seventh consecutive reading to come in below the all-time overall average of 61.5. The rate of expansion was more pronounced later in September, reading in at 60.5 during the second half of September – which was up significantly from the reading of 55.9 early in the month. The drop can be largely attributed to slowdowns in the expansion of supply chain costs. Taken together, the three cost/price metrics were down 11.9 points in September, reading in at 195.66. This is the slowest rate of cost expansion since March and the second lowest in 2025.Respondents were asked to predict movement in the overall LMI and individual metrics 12 months from now. Respondent predictions for the overall index are 59.6, down (-4.3) from August’s more optimistic prediction of 63.9. This would represent a slightly slower rate of growth than the all-time average of 61.5. This is driven by notably softer predictions for supply chain costs, with lower future predictions for Inventory Costs (-9.6 to 69.9), Warehousing Prices (-7.4 to 67.9), and Transportation Prices (-5.2 to 66.7). These lower costs come despite steady predictions for Inventory Levels (+0.7) at 55.7, which indicates a fairly lean policy.
Analysis: LMI Historical Trends
The current LMI of 57.4 is slightly below the recent three-month average of 58.7 and the all-time average of 61.5. Historically, the index has ranged from a low of 45.4 to a high of 76.2, with a standard deviation of 7.69, indicating moderate variability over time.
Analysis: Small vs. Large Firms, Upstream vs. Downstream Trends
We observe some differences when comparing feedback from Upstream and Downstream respondents in August. The most notable move, however, may be a lack of differences. For the past three readings Downstream Inventory Levels had contracted. That shifted in August, as Downstream retailers began stocking up at a rate of 57.1, only 0.9-points lower than Upstream’s expansion of 58.1. We also compare smaller firms (those with 0-999 employees, represented by maroon lines) to larger firms (those with 1,000 employees or more, represented by gold lines) in August. Similar to what we have seen in 3 of the last 4 months, smaller respondents are reporting significantly more activity this month than their larger counterparts. However unlike those reports, there was no significant difference in Inventory Levels, as large firms have now moved into expansionary territory (55.6) after contracting in July (49.0). The movements of inventories to larger firms may explain the statistically higher rate of expansion for Warehousing Utilization for large respondents (67.1) compared to their smaller counterparts (57.7). Despite this shift, smaller firms show significantly higher Inventory Costs (83.7) than larger firms (72.2), although both as still up significantly. Taken together, smaller firms report marginally a higher overall index (62.7 to 58.2), continuing the trend we have seen through much of 2025 with smaller firms reporting more supply chain activity across the board