Latest FAU Poll Shows Trump Lapping the Field in Florida as Clinton Trails in Matchups with GOP Frontrunners
MEDIA CONTACT: Jim Hellegaard
561-319-2233, jhellegaard@fau.edu
BOCA RATON, Fla. (November 18, 2015) – Donald Trump has doubled the vote of his nearest challenger in Florida, where Hillary
Clinton trails in matchups with several GOP frontrunners, according to a new poll
by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI).
The survey was conducted in Florida from Nov. 15-16, immediately after the latest Democratic debate.
Trump leads the GOP field with 36 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 18 percent, Ben Carson at 15 percent and Ted Cruz at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush placed fifth with just 8.9 percent, down more than two points from BEPI’s poll in September when he took 11.3 percent of the vote in Florida.
“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.
While Clinton holds a 43-point lead (65.5 percent to 22.4 percent) over Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, she continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the GOP frontrunners, with Carson holding the biggest margin at 9.7 points (50.2 percent to 40.5 percent).
Trump leads Clinton by 8.7 points in Florida (49.2 percent to 40.5 percent).
“While Clinton is losing in all the trial heats, she is winning among females,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Thus it appears that her strategy of targeting women is working.”
The GOP primary fight has not had a positive impact on favorability ratings for many of the candidates. Trump has a favorable rating of just 41 percent among all voters, while 51 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. His numbers are more positive among likely GOP voters, however, with 63 percent favorable compared to 32 percent unfavorable.
Clinton also suffers from negative name recognition, with voters giving her a 41 percent favorable rating, compared with 54 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of her.
Among Independent voters, Clinton’s numbers drop to 35 percent favorable and 56 percent unfavorable.
In the race for the U.S. Senate in Florida, U.S. Congressman Patrick Murphy, Democrat, holds a nine-point lead over Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, Republican, (39 percent to 30 percent), while Allen Grayson, Democrat, trails Lopez-Cantera by four points (38 percent to 34 percent). Ron DeSantis, Republican, fares slightly better against Murphy, trailing 38 percent to 36 percent, while he leads Grayson 37 percent to 33 percent.
The polling sample for the Democratic and the Republican primary consisted of 297 and 355 likely Florida voters, respectively, with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percent and +/-5.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The General Election Sample consisted of 829 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent and a 95 percent confidence level. For more information, contact Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., at 561-297-1312 or BEPI@fau.edu, or visit www.business.fau.edu/bepi.
- FAU -
About FAU BEPI:
The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economic Polling Initiative conducts surveys on business, economic, political and social issues with a focus on Hispanic attitudes and opinions at regional, state and national levels via planned monthly national surveys. The initiative subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research and is a resource for public and private organizations, academic research and media outlets. In addition, the initiative is designed to contribute to the educational mission of the University by providing students with valuable opportunities to enhance their educational experience by designing and carrying out public opinion research.
About Florida Atlantic University
Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University, with an annual economic impact of $6.3 billion, serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students at sites throughout its six-county service region in southeast Florida. FAU’s world-class teaching and research faculty serves students through 10 colleges: the Dorothy F. Schmidt College of Arts and Letters, the College of Business, the College for Design and Social Inquiry, the College of Education, the College of Engineering and Computer Science, the Graduate College, the Harriet L. Wilkes Honors College, the Charles E. Schmidt College of Medicine, the Christine E. Lynn College of Nursing and the Charles E. Schmidt College of Science. FAU is ranked as a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. The University is placing special focus on the rapid development of critical areas that form the basis of its strategic plan: Healthy aging, biotech, coastal and marine issues, neuroscience, regenerative medicine, informatics, lifespan and the environment. These areas provide opportunities for faculty and students to build upon FAU’s existing strengths in research and scholarship. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.