FAU Poll Shows Tight Race in Florida for U.S. Senate Seat

Presidential Job Approval

Trump's job performance continues to go in the wrong direction with 37% approval and 47% disapproval; both numbers are slightly up from 35% to 44% approve/disapprove in June's survey

Issues of the Day

Voters were asked about four current issues being discussed in the news.

First they were asked about statues honoring leaders of the confederacy and 49% agreed with the statement that statues should remain in public places while 30% would like them removed.

When asked about President Trump’s remarks that in Charlottesville, VA “there is blame on both sides”, voters were split with 44% disagreeing with the statement and 42% agreeing.

An item that is being discussed by candidates in Florida is gun laws. When voters were asked what limitation if any should be placed on carrying a handgun in a public place, 8% said they should always be allowed to carry in public even without a license while 34% said they should never be allowed to carry in public regardless if they had a license. Forty-three percent (43%) would approve of concealed carry with a license and 15% approve of openly carry with a license.

Voters were split on what to do with Obamacare (ACA) as 30% of voters want to keep it as is while 33% want it repealed in part and 37% want it completely replaced. Younger voters are most in favor of the ACA with 36% wanting to keep it as is and 25% want it completely replaced. The oldest voters are most opposed with 25% wanting to keep it as is while 40% want it completely replaced.

As expected Democrats were most in favor of keeping the law as is at 51%, Republicans were most in favor of completely replacing at 59% and Independents fall in the middle with 27% wanting to keep it as is and 36% want it totally replaced.

Looking Ahead to 2018

Next voters were asked about potential 2018 races including a hypothetical match up for U.S. Senate and the Democratic and Republican primaries for Governor.

With term limits keeping Gov. Rick Scott from seeking re-election, a hypothetical matchup with Senator Bill Nelson has Nelson ahead 42% to 40% which is well within the polls confidence interval of 4 percentage points. While Nelson carries an approval/disapproval of +4 (36% to 32%), both his approval and ballot test are well below the 50% threshold incumbents are looking for in their re-elect campaigns.

In a potential GOP primary for the above mentioned open Governor seat has FL Commissioner of Agriculture, Adam Putnam with a significant early lead at 27% with FL House Speaker Richard Corcoran at 10% and Congressman Ron DeSantis in third at 9%. Fifty-three percent (53%) of likely GOP primary voters were undecided. This subsample had a confidence interval of 6.5 percentage points.

On the Democratic side things are more open with activist and attorney John Morgan leading that pack at 19%, former US Congresswoman Gwen Graham is in the hunt at 14% and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum along with Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine is at 9% and 8% respectively with 47% undecided. This subsample also had a confidence interval of 6.5 percentage points.