Trump Unpopular with Hispanics in Florida, Struggles in Matchups with Democratic Contenders
Cuban Voters Bright Spot for Trump in Statewide Survey of Hispanics
(October 31st - November 2nd)
A new Florida Atlantic Poll of Floridians Hispanics, Latino’s and other Spanish ethnic groups have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump with 48% disapproving of his job performance while 31% approve, 22% were undecided. (n=600, +/- 3.9%)
President Trump’s approval is underwater with Puerto Ricans at 64% disapproval and 19% approval. However, those from Mexico are split with 43% disapproval and 38% approval. Cuban’s approval of President Trump’s performance is 47% and disapproval of 28%.
Governor Ron DeSantis appears to be doing a good job for Hispanics as 36% approve of the job he is doing with 23% disapproving and 34% undecided.
In a hypothetical Republican primary, 77% would vote for Trump, 12% for Joe Walsh, 7% for Bill Weld and 5% for Mark Sanford (n=152, +/- 7.9%)
In the Democratic Primary, Senator Bernie Sanders holds a slight advantage with 27% followed by former VP Joe Biden at 21% and Senator Elizabeth Warren at 20%, Julian Castro rounded out the top 4 at 5%. (n=268, +/-6%).
Sanders’ strength with Hispanics are those 18-29, where he leads with 37% of the vote, with Warren at 11% and Biden at 5%. Sanders sees his numbers drop to 30% with those 30-49 and to 23% with those 50-64 and down to 14% with those over 65. Biden has the opposite trend garnering 19% of those 30-49, 26% of those 50-64 and 38% with those over 65.
In potential General Election match-ups, Biden does the best against Trump with a 65.7% to 34.3% lead, Warren leads Trump 64.9% to 35.1% and Sanders leads Trump 62.1% to 37.9%.
The most important issue for Hispanic voters in deciding whom they will vote for President is the economy and healthcare with 20% each and education at 19% and Immigration at 10%.
While impeachment ranked last at 4% out of the nine issues voters could choose from, 50% approve of the impeachment inquiry while 29% disapprove, 21% were unsure.
However, it does not appear that Trump will be helped regardless of the impeachment outcome as 36% of Hispanics said they would be less likely to vote for Trump even if he is not convicted while 25% said they would be more likely, 39% said it made no difference.
Driving this attitude appears to be that a majority, 51% of Hispanics find President Trump asking a foreign leader to investigate a political opponent unacceptable, 27% said it was acceptable, 16% were unsure.
A majority of Hispanics, 53% also disapprove of Trumps handling of immigration policy while 30% approve and 16% were unsure.
Methodology
Data was collected Oct 30- November 2 via a mix mode sample with an online panel provided by Dynata (n=502) and a landline sample provided by Aristotle Inc and collected by IVR (n=98) for a total sample size of n=600, +/-3.9%. . It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was weighted based on 2018 American Community Survey on Hispanic population in Florida based on Congressional district along with weights for gender, age, and 2016 voter modeling.