Biden Leads Trump by 6 points in Florida,Voters Expect Trump to be Re-elected



A new Florida Atlantic University BEPI poll finds Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with 53% support among Floridians while President Trump gets 47%. This is a reversal of sorts from the March FAU poll when Trump led Biden 51% to 49%. This survey was conducted May 8-12 with a sample size of n=928, +/-3.1%.

FAU-BEPI: Florida Presidential Ballot Test T v B

Joe Biden is leading the Presidential ballot test (53% vs. 47%). However, 53% of the overall voters think that Trump will win the election while 46% think Biden will win in November. Furthermore, 78% of Trump supporters and 64% of Biden supporters report excitement for their candidates.

A key group of voters are Independents, who currently are slightly breaking for Biden 41% to 39%. However, 63% of Independent voters voting for Trump are excited to support him while  50% Independent voters voting for Biden are excited to support him.

Regionally Biden leads in South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties) 61% to 30% while Trump leads in the rest of the State 48% to 42%. Expectations of who will win vary between South Florida thinking Biden will win 56% to 44% while those in the rest of the State expect Trump to win 57% to 43%.

The most important issue for voters for whom they will vote for President is the economy at 28%, followed by someone who can beat Trump at 20%, healthcare at 18%, re-electing Trump at 13% and immigration at 12%

The most important issue for Republicans is the Economy at 38% followed by re-electing Trump at 29%. For Democrats the most important issue is beating Trump at 39% followed by healthcare at 24%. For Independents 6% report caring about beating Trump and 2% report wanting to re-elect Trump, 29% cited immigration as their top issue, followed by the economy at 25% and healthcare at 24%.

President Trump has seen his approval rating drop to 43% and his disapproval rise to 46% which are both down from March when the FAU poll had his approval at 49% and disapproval at 41%. Voters are slightly more positive on his handling of the coronavirus with a split at 45% approve/45% disapprove.

Fellow Republican and Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis has an overall 51% approval and 32% disapproval; however his handling of the coronavirus is down a tick from his overall approval with a 49% approval and 36% disapproval. Furthermore, regional differences are found with South Florida (Miami-Date, Broward and Palm Beach counties) reporting a 38% approval of the Governor’s handling of the coronavirus and a 47% disapproval. In the rest of the State the Governor has a 53% approval and 31% disapproval on the handling of the coronavirus.

A potential opportunity for Biden to gain excitement in his candidacy is with his Vice Presidential choice but it appears there is no consensus choice as of yet.  Of Biden supporters, 23% prefer Sen. Kamala Harris, 16% said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, 15% said former State Senator Stacey Abrams, 13% selected Hillary Clinton, and 12% said Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmore while Florida Congresswoman Val Demings got 3% support.


Data was collected May 8-12, 2020 via a mix mode sample with an online panel provided by Dynata (n=588) and a landline sample provided by Aristotle Inc and collected by IVR (n=340) for a total sample size of n= 928, +/-3.1%. Data was weighted based on gender, age, education, party affiliation, and ethnicity based on 2016 voter modeling.