Hispanic Index of Consumer Sentiment

Fourth Quarter 2020

TOPLINESRESULTSPRESS RELEASE

HISPANICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS WEAKER GOING INTO 2021

Hispanics in the United States feel less optimistic about their financial situation as they go into 2021. The fourth quarter Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) is at 79.3, which is around 6 points lower compared to the third quarter score of 84.9.  In addition, the fourth quarter HCSI is around the same as the general population fourth quarter average of 79.8 as published by the University of Michigan.

Overall, the majority of Hispanics are less optimistic about their financial situation going into 2021. Below are the detailed results of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index:

• In the fourth quarter, 47% of Hispanics said they are better off financially today than a year ago compared to 57% in the third quarter.

o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (60%) and those between 35-54 year old (40%) are more optimistic of their current financial  situation than those above 55 years old (31%).

•  In the fourth quarter, 62% of Hispanics said they expect to be better off financially in the next year compared to 69% in the third quarter.

o   Women are more optimistic of their current financial situation compared to men (67% vs. 57%).

•  Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 49% of Hispanics said that they expect the country to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year, which is the same as last quarter.

o   Men are more optimistic of the short run economic outlook of the country compared to women (53% vs. 45%).

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, 66% of Hispanics said that they expect the economic outlook of the country to be good in the next five years, up 9 points compared to the third quarter (q3=57%).

o   Men are more optimistic of the long run economic outlook of the country compared to women (72% vs. 58%).

•  Overall, in the third quarter 37% of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big ticket items compared to 48% percent in the third quarter.

o   Hispanics between 35-54 year old (44%) are more optimistic of buying big ticket items for their home than those between 18-34 year old (35%)  and those above 55 years old (28.2%).

Other key findings:

• Buying a House: In the fourth quarter 53% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a house compared to 54% in the third quarter.

• Buying a Car: In the fourth quarter, 47% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 55% in the third quarter. 

•  Cost of living: In the fourth quarter, 59% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 54% in the third quarter.

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 617 respondents sampled between October 1 and December 31, 2020 and a margin of error of +/- 3.95 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, and age according to latest American Community Survey data.

Third Quarter 2020

HISPANICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCHED UPWARD IN THE THIRD QUARTER

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) in the third quarter of 2020 finds that the Hispanic population’s consumer confidence in the U.S. has slightly increased compared to the second quarter. Specifically, the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) increased from 82.8 in the second quarter of 2020 to 84.8 in the third quarter. The HCSI is around 4 points higher than the general population September’s number of 80.4 as published by the University of Michigan.  

Overall, there is slight increase in optimism in three out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the second quarter of 2020. Below are the detailed results:

• In the third quarter of 2020, 57% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago compared to 55% in the second quarter.

o   Men are more optimistic of their current financial situation compared to women (61% vs. 54%).

• In the second quarter of 2020, 69% of Hispanics are optimistic of their future financial situation compared to 71% in the second quarter.

o   Men are more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to women (70% vs. 68%).

o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (73%) and those between 35-54 year old (68%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (63%).

• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 49% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 46% in the second quarter of 2020.

o   Hispanics that self-identified as Republicans (70%) are more optimistic of the short run economic outlook of the country compared to Democrats, Independents and not registered (Democrats (34%), Independents (64%) and not registered voters (32%)).

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, Hispanics are slightly less optimistic in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter (57% vs. 60%).

o   Hispanics that self-identified as Republicans (75%) are more optimistic of the long run economic outlook of the country compared to Democrats, Independents and not registered (Democrats (48%), Independents (66%) and not registered voters (37%)).

• In the third quarter of 2020, 48% percent of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big- ticket items compared to 42% percent in the second quarter.

o   Men are more optimistic that it is a good time to buy big-ticket item compared to women (56% vs. 40%).

Other key findings:

•  Cost of living: 54% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 63% in the previous quarter.

•  Buying a house: 55% of Hispanics think it is good time to buy a house compared to 52% in the second quarter of 2020.

•  Buying a Car: 55% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 48% in the previous quarter.

• President Trump approval rating: President Trump’s disapproval rating increased 8 points from 49% in the second quarter of 2020 to a 57% in the third quarter.

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 435 respondents sampled between April 1 and September 30, 2020 and a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data. The polling results and full cross-tabulations can be viewed on the FAU BEPI website.

Second Quarter 2020

HISPANICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCHED UPWARD IN THE SECOND QUARTER

Overall, there is slight increase in optimism in three out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the first quarter of 2020. Below are the detailed results:

• In the second quarter of 2020, 56% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago compared to 66% in the first quarter.

         o   Women are more optimistic of their current financial situation compared to men (64% vs. 45%).

         o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (66%) and those between 35-54 year old (51%) are more optimistic of  their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (37%).

• In the second quarter of 2020, 71% of Hispanics are optimistic of their future financial situation compared to 58% in the first quarter.

         o   Women are more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to men (72% vs. 70%).

         o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (77%) and those between 35-54 year old (77%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (48%).

• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 46% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 34% in the first quarter of 2020.

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, Hispanics are slightly more optimistic in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter (60% vs. 57%).

• In the second quarter of 2020, 42% percent of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big- ticket items compared to 53% percent in the first quarter.

          o   Women are more optimistic that it is a good time to buy big-ticket item compared to men (46% vs. 39%).

Other key findings:

• Cost of living: 63% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 57% in the previous quarter.

•  Buying a house: 52% of Hispanics think it is good time to buy a house compared to 43% in the first quarter of 2020.

•  Buying a Car: 48% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 52% in the previous quarter.

• President Trump approval rating: President Trump’s disapproval rating decreased 5 points from 56% in the first quarter of 2020 to a 49% in the second quarter.

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 741 respondents sampled between March 1 and June, 2020 and a margin of error of +/- 3.60 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data.

First Quarter 2020

HISPANICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SHARPLY DROPS IN THE FIRST QUARTER

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) in the first quarter of 2020 finds that the Hispanic population’s consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply dropped compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Specifically, the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) dropped from 100.9 in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 81.3 in the first quarter of 2020. The HCSI is around 7 points lower than the general population March’s number of 89.1 as published by the University of Michigan.

Overall, there is sharp drop in optimism in four out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. Below are the detailed results:

• In the first quarter of 2020, 66% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago, which is the same percentage (66%) as in the last quarter of 2019.

  o   Men are more optimistic of their current financial situation compared to women (69% vs. 63%).
  o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (77%) and those between 35-54 year old (62%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (50%).

• In the first quarter of 2020, 58% of Hispanics indicated they will be better off over the next year compared to 73% in the last quarter of 2019.

  o   Women are more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to men (73% vs. 42%).

  o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (78%) and those above 55 years old (47%) are more optimistic of their future financial situation than those between 35-54 year old (43%).

• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 34% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 65% in the fourth quarter of 2019.

          o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (47%) and those between above 55 years old (31%) are more optimistic of the short run economic outlook of the country than those 35-54 year old (22%).

          o   Hispanics that self-identified as Republicans (42%) are more optimistic of the short run economic outlook of the country compared to Democrats, Independents and not registered (Democrats (26%), Independents (32%) and not registered voters (34%)).

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, Hispanics are less optimistic in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 (57% vs. 65%).

          o   Men are more optimistic of the long run economic outlook of the country compared to women (58% vs.                       55%).

          o   Hispanics that self-identified as Republicans (73%) are more optimistic of the long run economic outlook of the country compared to Democrats, Independents and not registered (Democrats (42%), Independents (57%) and not registered voters (40%)).

• In the first quarter of 2020, 53% percent of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy big ticket items compared to 65% percent in the fourth quarter of 2019.

Other key findings:

• Cost of living: 57% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 59% in the last quarter of 2019.

• Buying a house: 43% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a house compared to 63% in the last quarter of 2019.

• Buying a Car: 52% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 66% in the last quarter of 2019.

• President Trump approval rating: President Trump’s approval rating increases 2 points from 42% in last quarter of 2019 to a 44% approval in the first quarter of 2020.

         o   Hispanics that self-identified as Republicans (58%) have a higher approval rating of President Trump’s performance compared to Democrats, Independents and not registered (Democrats (27%), Independents (58%) and not registered voters (31%)).

         o  Hispanics between 18-34 year old (58%) and those between 35-54 year old (38%) have higher approval ratings of President Trump than those above 55 years old (29%).

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 741 respondents sampled between January 1 and March 31, 2020 and a margin of error of +/- 3.60 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data.