Hispanic Index of Consumer Sentiment

Fourth Quarter 2021

TOPLINESRESULTSPRESS RELEASE

HISPANICS' CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS WEAKER GOING INTO 2022

Hispanics in the United States feel less optimistic about their financial situation as they go into 2022. The fourth quarter Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) is at 86.7, which is around 4 points lower compared to the third quarter score of 90.5.  The HCSI finished lower in the fourth quarter compared to the first quarter of 2021.  The same trend is true for the general population’s consumer confidence index published by the University of Michigan.  

Overall, the majority of Hispanics are less optimistic about their financial situation going into 2022. The decrease in consumer confidence can be a consequence of the higher inflation that adds to the financial strain the pandemic has already caused. Inflation is hurting Americans' wallets as it hits a 40 year-high in the United States, but certain minority groups like Hispanics are feeling it the most. A report from Bank of America shows that households without college degrees, African Americans, Hispanics and those living in rural areas have been spending more of their post-tax income on goods and services that have seen the most price inflation such as energy, food, cars, and household items. For example, African American and Hispanic households spent 7.1% of their post-tax income on energy compared to 5.4% spent by other demographics. These same households spent 12.5% of their income on food compared to 11.1% for everyone else.

Below are the detailed results of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index:

• In the fourth quarter, 59% of Hispanics said they are better off financially today than a year ago compared to 62% in the third quarter.
  • Hispanics between 18-34 year old (71%) and those between 35-54 year old (52%) are more optimistic about their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (46%).
     
• In the fourth quarter, 70% of Hispanics said they expect to be better off financially in the next year compared to 78% in the third quarter.
  • Women are more optimistic about their current financial situation compared to men (77% vs. 64%).
     
• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 51% of Hispanics said that they expect the country to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 53% in the previous quarter.
  • Men are more optimistic about the short run economic outlook of the country compared to women (53% vs. 49%).
     
• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, 53% of Hispanics said that they expect the economic outlook of the country to be good in the next five years compared to 58% in third quarter.
  • Hispanics between 18-34 year old (63%) are more optimistic about the long run economic outlook of the country compared to those between 35-54 year old (49%) and those above 55 years old (39%).
     
• Overall, in the fourth quarter, 53% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy big ticket items compared to 48% percent in the third quarter.
  • Hispanics between 18-34 year old (65%) are more optimistic about buying big ticket items for their home than those between 35-54 year old (52%) and those above 55 years old (28%).

Other key findings:

• Buying a House: In the fourth quarter, 46% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a house compared to 41% in the third quarter.
   
• Buying a Car: In the fourth quarter, 53% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 44% in the third quarter.  
   
• Cost of living: In the fourth quarter, 69% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 79% in the third quarter.

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 666 respondents sampled between October 1 and December 31, 2021 and a margin of error of +/- 3.79 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by gender, age, education, and income according to latest American Community Survey data.

Third Quarter 2021

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HISPANICS’ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REMAINED STABLE IN THE THIRD QUARTER

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) in the third quarter of 2021 finds that the Hispanic population’s consumer confidence in the U.S. remained virtually unchanged compared to the second quarter. Specifically, the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) barely decreased from 90.8 in the second quarter of 2021 to 90.5 in the third quarter. The HCSI is around 15 points higher than the general population’s third quarter number of 74.8 as published by the University of Michigan.  

Overall, there is slight decrease in optimism in three out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the second quarter of 2021. Below are the detailed results:

• In the third quarter of 2021, 62% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago compared to 63% in the second quarter and 59% in the first quarter of 2021.

o   Hispanics between 18-34 year old (68%) and those between 35-54 year old (61%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (50%).

• In the third quarter of 2021, 78% of Hispanics are more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to 74% in the second quarter and 73% in the first quarter of 2021.

o   Hispanics between 18-34 years old (84%) and those between 35-54 years old (78%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (67%).

• Regarding the short-run economic outlook of the country, 53% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year, compared to 51% in the second quarter and 54% in the first quarter of 2021.

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, 58% of Hispanics are optimistic, compared to 59% in the second quarter and 58% in the first quarter of 2021.

• In the second third of 2021, 48% percent of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big- ticket items compared to 53% percent in the second quarter and 54% in the first quarter of 2021.

Other key findings:

• Cost of living: 79% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 74% in the second quarter and 67% in the first quarter of 2021.

• Buying a house: 41% Hispanics think it is good time to buy a house compared to 50% in the second quarter and 55% in the first quarter of 2021.

• Buying a Car: 44% Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 56% in the second quarter and 64% in the first quarter of 2021.

The survey is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 514 respondents sampled between July 1 and September 30, 2021 with a margin of error of +/- 4.32 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data. 

Second Quarter 2021

HISPANICS CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INCHED DOWNWARD IN THE SECOND QUARTER

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) in the second quarter of 2021 finds that the Hispanic population’s consumer confidence in the U.S. has slightly decreased compared to the first quarter. Specifically, the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) decreased from 92.0 in the first quarter of 2021 to 90.8 in the second quarter. The HCSI is around 5 points higher than the general population’s second quarter number of 85.6 as published by the University of Michigan.

Overall, there is slight decrease in optimism in three out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the first quarter of 2021. Below are the detailed results:

• In the second quarter of 2021, 63% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago compared to 59% in the first quarter and 47% in the last quarter of 2020.

o  Hispanics between 18-34 year old (74%) and those between 35-54 year old (56%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (51%).

• In the second quarter of 2021, 74% of Hispanics are slightly more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to 73% in the first quarter and 62% in the last quarter of 2020.

o  Hispanics between 18-34 years old (82%) and those between 35-54 years old (75%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those above 55 years old (55%).

• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 51% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 54% in the first quarter and 49% in the last quarter of 2020.

o  Hispanics between 18-34 years old (57%) and those between 35-54 years old (52%) are more optimistic of the short run economic outlook of the country than those above 55 years old (38%).

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, 59% of Hispanics are slightly less optimistic year compared to 61% in the first quarter and 66% in the last quarter of 2020.

• In the second quarter of 2021, 53% percent of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big- ticket items compared to 54% percent in the first quarter and 37% in the last quarter of 2020.

Other key findings:

• Cost of living: 74% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 67% in the previous quarter.

• Buying a house: 50% of Hispanics think it is good time to buy a house compared to 55% in the first quarter of 2020.

• Buying a Car: 56% of Hispanics think it is a good time to buy a car compared to 64% in the previous quarter.

The survey is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata. There were 616 respondents sampled between April 1 and June 30, 2021 with a margin of error of +/- 3.95 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data. 

First Quarter 2021

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HISPANICS' CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SHARPLY INCREASES IN THE FIRST QUARTER

The Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) in the first quarter of 2021 finds that the Hispanic population’s consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply increased compared to the fourth quarter of 2020.

Specifically, the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index (HCSI) increased from 79.3 in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 92.0 in the first quarter of 2021. The HCSI is around 12 points higher than the general population’s first quarter number of 80.2 as published by the University of Michigan.

Overall, there is sharp increase in optimism in four out of the five questions used to generate the Hispanic Consumer Sentiment Index when compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Below are the detailed results:

• In the first quarter of 2021, 59% of Hispanics said they are better off financially than a year ago, which is 12 percentage points higher (47%) than last quarter of 2020.

• • Hispanics between 18-34 year old (64%) are more optimistic of their current financial situation than those between 35-54 year old (55%) are those above 55 years old (55%).

•  In the first quarter of 2021, 73% of Hispanics indicated they will be better off over the next year compared to 62% in the last quarter of 2020.

• • Women are more optimistic of their future financial situation compared to men (76% vs. 70%).
  • Hispanics between 18-34 year old (75%) are more optimistic of their future financial situation than those between 35-54 year old (74%) are those above 55 years old (65%).

• Regarding the short run economic outlook of the country, 54% of Hispanics said they expect the country as a whole to

  experience good business conditions in the upcoming year compared to 49% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

• In terms of long run economic outlook of the country, Hispanics are less optimistic in the first quarter of 2021 compared to

  the fourth quarter of 2020 (61% vs. 66%).

• In the first quarter of 2021, 54% percent of Hispanics think it is good time to buy big ticket items compared to 37% percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.

• • Men are more optimistic that it is a good time to buy big ticket than women (60% vs. 49%)

Other key findings:

• Buying a house: 55% of Hispanics think it is good time to buy a house compared to 53% in the last quarter of 2020.

• Cost of living: 67% of Hispanics said the cost of living has gone up compared to 59% in the last quarter of 2020.

The poll is based on a panel sample of Hispanic adults, 18 years of age and older. The survey was administered using both landlines via IVR data collection and online data collection using Dynata.  There were 542 respondents sampled between January 1 and March 31, 2021 and a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points. Responses for the entire sample were weighted to reflect the national distribution of the Hispanic population by region, education, gender, age and income according to latest American Community Survey data. The polling results and full cross-tabulations can be viewed on the FAU BEPI website.